You are unsure what numbers to enter
Use the guide to choose broad, aggregate inputs without overcomplicating the first pass.
Recovery Systems Library resource
Winery Revenue Leak Calculator Guide
A concise companion guide for using the Revenue Leak Calculator responsibly. Use it to choose assumptions, interpret scenarios, and decide what to review next.
Responsible use
Estimate what to review first, not what will happen.
Use aggregate numbers only. Do not enter or upload private customer data.
Start conservative, compare scenarios, then choose one opportunity area for segmentation and review.
Check consent, opt-outs, offer terms, fulfillment, staff capacity, and margin before outreach.
Use this guide when
You need a clearer first pass through the calculator.
You want conservative assumptions
Start with lower conversion expectations and directional margin estimates before comparing scenarios.
You need to explain results to a team
Use scenario language so staff understand the output as planning support, not a forecast.
You want to know what to do next
Move from estimate to one clean opportunity area before deciding whether the full kit fits.
Calculator inputs explained
Use broad counts and conservative assumptions.
Dormant buyer count
What it means
Past DTC buyers who have not reordered inside the normal buying window.
Estimate conservatively
Count only likely reachable, relevant records. Start with a narrower dormancy window if the full list is messy.
Do not include
Do not include every past buyer, unclear-permission records, or suppressed contacts.
Cancelled/lapsed club member count
What it means
Former or inactive club members who may be appropriate for review.
Estimate conservatively
Start with recent cancellations or known reasons before older records.
Do not include
Do not include customers who requested no contact or have unresolved complaints without escalation.
Tasting-room follow-up gap
What it means
Visitors or tasting-room buyers who opted in but did not receive useful follow-up.
Estimate conservatively
Use aggregate visit, opt-in, or buyer counts for a defined period.
Do not include
Do not include visitors without permission or unclear visit context.
Average order value
What it means
A rough expected order size if a customer responds.
Estimate conservatively
Use a recent conservative AOV from similar DTC orders.
Do not include
Do not use a best-ever order or a high-value outlier as the baseline.
Conversion rate assumption
What it means
The percentage of the segment that might take the intended action.
Estimate conservatively
Start low. Use conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios for comparison.
Do not include
Do not treat an optimistic rate as a forecast.
Repeat purchase multiplier
What it means
A simple way to model whether one recovered customer may buy more than once.
Estimate conservatively
Use 1x unless there is a strong reason to model repeat purchase behavior.
Do not include
Do not assume repeat orders without evidence.
Gross margin estimate
What it means
A directional planning percentage after cost considerations.
Estimate conservatively
Use a rough internal estimate only if finance or management is comfortable with it.
Do not include
Do not treat it as finance-confirmed margin analysis.
Scenario interpretation
Useful for prioritizing, not proving.
The calculator is useful for deciding what to review first, not proving what will happen.
Conservative scenario
A safer planning baseline using low conversion assumptions.
Use this to decide whether a segment is worth reviewing first.
Moderate scenario
A possible working target if the segment, offer, timing, and staff capacity look reasonable.
Use this for internal planning only after reviewing list quality.
Optimistic scenario
An upside case, not a forecast.
Use this to understand sensitivity, not to promise revenue or plan commitments.
Common assumption mistakes
Most bad estimates start with messy inputs.
Using every customer in the database.
Including unclear-permission contacts.
Using optimistic conversion rates too early.
Treating gross margin as exact.
Ignoring stock, fulfillment, or staff capacity.
Assuming email or SMS permission exists.
Treating the estimate as guaranteed revenue.
Illustrative example only
Aggregate inputs, not customer records.
Dormant buyer count: 400 aggregate records.
Average order value: $95 planning assumption.
Conservative conversion rate: 2% planning assumption.
Directional estimate: 400 x $95 x 2% = $760 before margin, stock, fulfillment, and capacity review.
Next action: review segment quality and permission before any outreach.
What to do after the calculator
Move from estimate to one reviewed recovery action.
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