Estimate dormant buyer opportunity
Use broad counts to understand how much buyer inactivity may be worth reviewing.
Free winery DTC tool
See the revenue hiding in your customer list.
Estimate recovery scenarios for dormant buyers, paused or inactive current club members, cancelled former members, and tasting-room visitors who never heard back. Use mutually exclusive aggregate counts only — no customer data entered or stored.
Planning assumptions only
Use estimates, scenarios, and directional numbers.
No forms, no email capture, and no customer data stored. The calculator runs in your browser. Use rough aggregate counts, not private customer records.
Use this calculator when
You need a simple starting point before deeper segmentation.
Understand club pause and cancellation leakage
Size paused or inactive current-member and fully cancelled former-member groups without overlapping them.
Size tasting-room follow-up gaps
Estimate the planning opportunity from visitors or buyers who opted in but were not followed up well.
Start before using the full kit
Use the result to choose one opportunity area for segmentation and review.
What this calculator estimates
Directional opportunity, not fake precision.
Use the output as a scenario, planning assumption, and prioritization signal. It is not a promise that outreach will convert.
Dormant buyer recovery opportunity
Paused or inactive current club member opportunity
Cancelled former member opportunity
Tasting-room visitor follow-up opportunity
Average order value impact
Conversion-rate sensitivity
Gross margin direction
Before entering numbers
Keep the inputs broad and conservative.
Use aggregate counts only; do not enter private customer records.
Start with conservative assumptions and actual winery context.
Confirm permission, opt-outs, offer terms, fulfillment, staff capacity, and margin before outreach.
How to use it
Four quick steps.
Step 1
Enter mutually exclusive counts for dormant buyers, paused or inactive current club members, cancelled former members, and tasting-room follow-up gaps.
Step 2
Enter AOV and conversion assumptions using conservative numbers first.
Step 3
Compare conservative, moderate, and optimistic scenarios as planning ranges.
Step 4
Choose one opportunity area to review before deciding whether the paid kit is useful.
Calculator
Enter scenario assumptions, then choose one segment to review.
The calculator runs client-side in the browser. It does not upload, store, or submit your inputs.
Working calculator
Scenario opportunity estimate
Enter rough planning assumptions. Everything runs in the browser only. Nothing is submitted, uploaded, stored, or connected to analytics.
Audience total: 470 people
How the estimate works
Estimated opportunity = audience × average order value × repeat purchase multiplier × scenario conversion rate.
All monetary amounts are shown in USD.
Use mutually exclusive counts. Do not enter the same person in more than one audience field.
Advanced assumptions
Assumption snapshot
- Base audience
- 470 people
- AOV
- $95
- Midpoint rate
- 4.0%
- Planning base
- $44,650
conservative
$893
Directional gross margin view: $491
moderate
$1,786
Directional gross margin view: $982
optimistic
$2,679
Directional gross margin view: $1,473
Your next step
Based on these assumptions, the moderate scenario is approximately $1,786.
The kit is priced as a one-time operating system you can reuse across future recovery segments.
The Winery DTC Recovery Kit gives you the practical system to go after it — segmentation workbook, win-back templates, club save scripts, tasting-room follow-up sequences, offer library, weekly rhythm, and staff SOPs. One-time, instant download.
Use the result carefully
Treat this as a planning prompt, not a forecast. Review segment quality, consent and opt-outs, offer terms, fulfilment, staff capacity, and margin before outreach.
What this calculator doesn't include
The estimate is useful, but it is not the whole upside.
Future visits and new buyers
This estimate uses your current dormant list only. It doesn't capture revenue from the visitors and buyers you'll add this year.
Club retention compounding
Saving one cancelling club member is worth multiple bottles per year, every year. The calculator scores only the immediate recovery.
Better targeting uplift
Cleaner segmentation can lift AOV and conversion on every campaign, not just dormant ones. The kit pays for itself across releases, not just this one.
Stop estimating. Start recovering.
The Winery DTC Recovery Kit — $199, instant download.
Built around the same four customer groups this calculator just sized — paused or inactive current club members, dormant buyers, cancelled former members, and tasting-room follow-up. Five practical PDF guides, the segmentation workbook, and a weekly operating rhythm small teams can actually run.
How to interpret results
The next action is review, not blasting every segment.
Conservative scenario
Use as a safer planning baseline. It is usually the best first number for deciding whether a segment is worth reviewing.
Moderate scenario
Use as a possible working target after the segment, offer, permission status, and staff capacity are reviewed.
Optimistic scenario
Treat as upside, not a forecast. Do not plan stock, staffing, or revenue around it without evidence.
Revenue estimate
Use it to choose the next segment to review, then check the practical constraints before outreach.
What to do next